Tuesday gives us five meetings and twenty picks, and the shape of the day is unusual. The afternoon is busy enough, but the real conviction sits in the evening at Wolverhampton, where three of our picks carry double stakes. When that happens it usually means the card has fallen kindly, and we think it has.
Start at Ffos Las though, because that is where the day’s banker runs. Tallahassee Lassie towers over a small field in the 3:00 and drops down the weights just as her form turns, sixth to fifth to third over her last three starts. From stall two she has everything in her favour, and at the price she is the foundation of the day. Later on the same card, Homeland in the 4:40 produced the fastest run of his life when fourth last time, the latest step in a steady climb. Thomas Faulkner’s runners are worth following here and the trip is already in the locker.
Beverley and Leicester share the afternoon workload with five picks apiece. The one we keep coming back to is Ottoman in the 2:54 at Leicester. He keeps clocking quicker times with every start while his mark has slipped to a workable level, he is proven over the trip, and Saffie Osborne takes the ride in a small field. At 3/1 he looks the pick of the Midlands card. At Beverley, Without Flaw in the 4:23 is a similar story of a horse running faster than her finishing positions suggest, and several who beat her have won since. Joanna Mason knows that stiff five furlongs as well as anyone riding.
Then comes Wolverhampton, where Night Storm, Homme De Fer and Luan all carry two points each through the evening. Two of the three are as short as 6/4, so this is a card where we are backing our judgement rather than chasing prices. There is one Irish runner too, Forthill at Killarney, where Paddy Twomey and Billy Lee both have fine records and the horse’s latest third was a career best on the clock.
Yesterday went well. Three winners from five picks, headed by Impossible Mission at 6/1, with Senor Cortez and Muskerry Rock following him in and the other two both placing. A clean sheet of returns like that does not come along often, so we will take it and move on.
If the Wolverhampton trio deliver tonight, this will be two strong days back to back. The banker at Ffos Las gets us started just after lunch.