Four meetings today and fifteen picks, and the shape of it is unusual. Thirteen of them are 4/1 or shorter. That is not us chasing prices. That is the card handing us a run of horses who look a class above what they are facing, and we are not going to talk ourselves out of them just because the odds are short.
Catterick is where it starts and where most of the weight sits. Five picks across the afternoon, opening with Made All at 2:10. The yard knows every inch of that track, the weight is coming down at exactly the right moment, and the horse won four starts back before running third last time. The quickest work has come in recent days. Look through the rest of that field and nothing matches it.
The other one to note at Catterick is Haaderr in the 4:10. Runner up twice before going one better, so the form is heading the right way, and Bethell is running at 34% over the last fortnight. He has had this trip before and 86 looks a fair mark. The 281 days off is the one thing that could undo it, and we are not pretending otherwise, but everything else lines up.
Bath is a two-part story. Darkened Edge in the 3:31 runs the fastest times round the place and the win last time out confirmed what we already thought. Back quickly, 12 days on, five furlongs proven, and stall one to work from with Mason aboard, who knows the track as well as anyone. Then there is Merrimack in the 2:31 at 6.5, one of only two picks today above 4/1. He keeps bumping into horses who go on and win, which makes the finishing positions look worse than the runs deserve. Three thirds and a second from six starts. He is knocking loudly and 69 is workable.
The evening belongs to Lingfield and Yarmouth. Probation at 5:20 reads a long way clear of his two rivals and the modest form figures are exactly why he gets overlooked. Weight coming down, finishing off his races, and the 39-day break does not worry us. Ron’s Angel and Classic Encounter both carry two points, which tells you where the confidence sits. Yarmouth is lighter, three picks, with Viking Glory at 8.0 each way the one that could pay for the day.
Yesterday gave us two winners from five. Homeland at 3.0 and Luan at 2.62, with Viviana placing at 8.0. A solid enough Tuesday to build on.
Short prices mean the margins are thin and the day needs the bankers to actually stand up. Catterick will tell us early whether it is one of those days.