Today is launch day for The Form Signal V2.0.
We’ve been quietly developing this system for the best part of two years, against twelve years of UK and Ireland race data. The version that goes live this morning is the first one we’re prepared to put a public P/L number against. Every pick from today onwards is logged on the /record page — wins, losses, non-runners, the lot.
What’s new
The previous scoring engine was a single 13-factor model that ranked every horse in every race and tipped the top one. It read form decently — the strike rate over our test bed sat at 52.7% win-or-placed across 298 settled picks — but the picks themselves bled money, because the model didn’t know when not to tip.
V2.0 fixes that by splitting the system into independent decision streams. Each stream looks for a specific kind of edge, and a pick only fires when the stream’s criteria are met:
- Form-cell findings mined from twelve years of results, scoring every horse against its specific race cell (class × handicap × distance band × race code)
- Class-weighted line-through — collateral form scored by the quality of the line, not raw form figures
- Proprietary speed figures built from every UK race since 2014
- Career-arc handicapping — where each horse sits in its own career, weight movement, weeks since a class win
A horse only becomes a pick when one of these streams identifies a measurable edge. Most races on most days produce no pick at all. That’s the design.
Today’s card
Today’s card runs across Ayr, Warwick, Yarmouth, Kempton (AW) and Gowran Park — 25 selections in total. They’ve been grouped into three sections on the /tips page:
- Strong Confidence — singles at 4/1 or shorter where the model expects to win
- Long Shots — bigger-priced calls played each-way for value
- Multiples — a daily treble and a Lucky 15 built from the day’s strongest selections
The full thread is live on @theformsignal on X, with one post per meeting.
The honesty rules
Every pick is published before the race runs. Every result is logged the same day. The track record on this site is the complete record from today onwards — nothing edited, nothing quietly retired.
If you want the tips direct to your inbox each morning, sign up on the homepage. Otherwise, the X thread goes up by 09:00 UK every day and the /tips page mirrors it in full.
Good luck this afternoon.