WOOHOO (3:50 Newmarket, 4/1) has been second in four of her last six races. In the most recent she was third. When a horse keeps finishing in the frame without winning, punters usually decide she doesn’t want to go past, and some of that is already in today’s price. We see it differently.
The reason is York on 6 September. She finished half a length in front of a horse there, and that horse has since won a class 2. Today she drops to class 3 over seven furlongs on good to firm, and she has already handled that trip and ground. She is also back out quickly, nine days after her last start. Jim Goldie’s string has been quiet, with two winners from its last 61 runners, and her recent times have not been getting any quicker. Those are the two marks against her. Still, a filly who beat a subsequent class 2 winner at York only needs to repeat that run here, and 4/1 in a field of ten doesn’t ask her to do any more.
Redcar
BRADBURY (2:17 Redcar, 11/4) won at Hamilton on 20 September by a head. It looked a narrow win at the time. Since then the runner-up has won off a mark 7lb higher than the day they met. That changes how the Hamilton race reads. If the horse he beat can win off 7lb more, Bradbury is not badly treated in a class 5 over a mile and a quarter.
He has won three of his last six, comes back after thirteen days, and has been over this trip on this ground before. His times have been climbing from a low starting point, which is what you see in a horse the handicapper hasn’t caught up with yet, not one that is already fast. Edward Bethell does better at Redcar than he does in general, and Oisin Orr rides the track well too. The sixth two runs back shows he can run below himself. At 11/4 we are happy to take the risk that it happens again.
WILD DAHLIA (4:35 Redcar, 11/2) is the harder sell on paper.
Her last three read 3-6-4, the win five starts back is starting to feel a while ago, and this is a fourteen-runner class 2 handicap over a mile. Go back to Epsom on 10 September, though. She was fourth there, a head in front of a horse that has won a class 4 since. Her times are moving the right way too, from a modest base, so the figures are rising underneath results that look flat. William Haggas brings her back after 23 days, Jason Hart rides, and she has stall 1. The price already allows for the soft recent form, and that is why we are happy to take it.
Gowran Park
The ground at Gowran is yielding to soft, and the first race there is the shortest price we have all day.
At Galway on 30 July, EL CAIROS (1:20 Gowran Park, 11/8) was beaten a length by a horse that has since won a Listed race. Being a length off Listed-winning form is the main reason we’re with him in a six-runner Class 1 over two miles for Gordon Elliott and Jack Kennedy. He won four starts back, he has run over this trip, and his times have stood up against horses of this calibre. The concerns are clear enough. He was seventh last time and he has been off 65 days. We trust the Galway run over the seventh. 11/8 is short, but this is a small field and his best form fits it.
Three miles in a thirteen-runner handicap on soft ground tests a horse’s jumping as much as its form, and that is the issue with MOONOVERCLOON (2:30 Gowran Park, 11/2). He fell last time out and was pulled up the run before. Nobody will back him blind off that.
So why are we with him? He has form over this trip and on this going, and his best is better than a mark of 113. The horse that beat him a head at Punchestown last October is now rated 6lb higher. Declan Queally’s runner needs a clean round under Michael Kenneally, and if he gets one, 11/2 is a big price.
Southwell
MARRA DONNA (8:00 Southwell, 5/1) has not run for 103 days, and that is the question. Before the break he kept finishing close without winning, third last time and placed in three of his last six. More than one of the horses he finished near has won since, so his recent runs have stood up. He has run over this trip and on this surface before. This is a ten-runner class 6 sprint over just short of five furlongs, and stall 2 is a good draw for that trip at Southwell. His official mark of 58 looks lenient on what he has shown. If he comes back fit, the draw makes him the one to beat at eight o’clock.
Yesterday two of our five headline picks won, He’s Our Cracker at 5/1 and Stay Hopeful at 6/5, and two more placed.
Woohoo has been second four times, and that York form says the next frame she finishes in could be first.