STAY HOPEFUL (5:08 Hexham, 6/5) has not won in his last five starts, and he is still the shortest price of anything we are with today. Those two facts fit together better than they look. At Worcester on 16 July he was beaten a length and a quarter, and the horse that beat him has since won off a mark 6lb higher than the day they met. The handicapper has put that one up again since. The case does not hang on that one result either, because another horse from his recent races has gone and won as well. He was third on his latest start. He has run over this three miles on good ground before, and Sean Bowen rides in a field of seven. His times have been heading the right way too. The real question is the 78 days since that third. At 6/5 you need him ready first time back, and the price leaves nothing to cover a horse that needs the run.
Earlier at Hexham
GLORY AND HONOUR (3:23 Hexham, 13/2) is clearly on the up. His times have come up sharply from a low base, and a handicapper doing that can stay ahead of the assessor for a while. He has been placed on each of his last two starts, second and then third, and horses he finished close to in those races have won since. He has won at Hexham before, and this is one of Sam England’s better tracks. Rebecca Hitchen claims 7lb. He was last out 23 days ago, so fitness is not a worry, and he has handled this trip and this ground before. In a nine-runner Class 4 over two and a half miles, 13/2 is a fair price for a horse going this way.
Yesterday two of our five headline picks won, at 8/1 and 5/1, and the other three all placed.
Wolverhampton, 4:25 and 4:55
The best form line of the day belongs to STAR OF MALI (4:55 Wolverhampton, 11/4), and it comes from a horse that finished behind him. At Southwell on 18 June he finished three quarters of a length ahead of a rival. That rival has since won a Class 4 off a mark 6lb higher than the day they met. When the horse you beat goes up 6lb and still wins, the form has been proved for you. Another horse from his recent races has won too, so the form around him has stood up more than once. He has won twice in his last five, the latest of those two runs back. He has gone well over this course and distance, and stall four is a good draw over this trip. He was fifth last time and has been off 67 days, and those are the only real marks against him. Neither one cancels out the Southwell run. Luke Morris rides for James Tate in a nine-runner Class 5.
Half an hour earlier QUIET SUMMER (4:25 Wolverhampton, 3/1) brings a much shorter record. His three most recent runs read fourth, second and third, and he has not won in that spell. At Newcastle on 3 September he was beaten half a length, and the horse in front of him has since won a Class 4, which is the grade he runs in today. He gets a mile and a half against four rivals, with Daniel Muscutt riding. Andrew Balding’s runners tend to do better at Wolverhampton than his overall record would suggest. He keeps getting close, and the Newcastle line says the gap is a small one.
Newcastle
HE’S OUR CRACKER (4:40 Newcastle, 4/1) has been off for 79 days. His recent times are ordinary and there is nothing in them to say he is improving. What he does have is a fourth last time, previous runs over this trip and on this surface, stall one and Daniel Tudhope. This is a nine-runner Class 6. His only win in his last six came six starts back. The case is modest and so is the race.
BEAUTY GENERATION (7:45 Newcastle, 11/2) has five rivals over a mile. Look at his last three runs and he won the first of them and finished second in the latest. That is consistent form for a Class 6, and stall two is a useful spot here. He has been off 52 days. The concern is the clock, because his times have been going the wrong way, and a horse winning and placing on slower times can be flattered by the grade. At 11/2 we accept that risk. He finished three quarters of a length ahead of a later winner at Nottingham in August, though that horse only went on to win a Class 6. It is a small extra point and nothing more.
Dundalk
The last race we are involved in is the 8:30, and it is the hardest one to make a strong case for. AVIATRICE (8:30 Dundalk, 13/8) has finished eighth on each of her last two starts and has not won in six. Read only her latest results and she is not a 13/8 shot. Go back to Haydock on 8 August and it looks different. She was beaten three quarters of a length that day, and the horse that beat her has since won a Listed race. Her recent form also includes a second three starts back and a third four starts back.
She has been off 20 days, has run over seven furlongs on this surface before, and W. J. Lee rides for David Marnane from stall two in a six-runner race. We are backing her because of her best run and because it is a small field. It is not a strong conviction. If the horse who ran so close to a Listed winner in August shows up, the two eighths will not matter.