Newmarket is good to firm this afternoon. Haydock is heavy. It is the same Saturday but it will race like two different sports, and the horse we most want to talk about is on the fast side of it.
ARCTIC DAWN (4:50 Newmarket, 5/1) runs in a Class 2 over seven furlongs with twelve going to post, and the ground comes first. His career record says good to firm is his surface, and he has already run over this trip on this going. After that it is about speed. His recent speed figures sit above his own standard, and in a race this competitive the horse running to his best times is usually the one still there in the last furlong. He won two starts back. He was eighth last time, and that run is why he is 5/1 and not shorter. He has had 37 days off since. Billy Loughnane rides a gelding on an official mark of 102, and in this company that is a mark to be competing off rather than hanging on.
Haydock on heavy ground
Nobody will be quick at Haydock today. GALLIVANTED (5:10 Haydock, 10/3) has been off for 135 days and comes back over a mile and six in that ground, which is a real question for any horse first time back. We still want him, because of what happened at Salisbury on 14 May.
He was beaten half a length that day. The horse that beat him has since gone and won a Class 2, and this is a Class 4. Two more horses out of his recent races have won since as well, so it is not one flattering result doing all the work. There is a win in his form before this season’s placings, and the eighth last time came before the break. Haydock is one of Harry Derham’s stronger tracks, and Hector Crouch has the inside stall in a field of nine. He is running off a level of form that this race has not caught up with.
CAMARDA RC (4:00 Haydock, 7/2) is the shorter case. He won two starts back and was second last time, so he arrives in form, and he has run over this trip of just short of seven furlongs before. Only seven line up. Stall 5 is a good place to be at Haydock over this distance, and Richard Hannon’s runner has Sean Levey on board. In a small field, he is the one we want.
Southwell
MIMIME (4:10 Southwell, 10/3) runs in a Class 6 sprint off an official mark of 45. This is a price play, not a find, and the price has something behind it.
On 3 September, over this course, Mimime was beaten a length and a half. The horse that beat her has since won off a mark 5lb higher. Mimime also has form over this course and distance, has finished second in each of the last two starts, and comes out again just nine days after the latest one. Stall 5 is a good draw over this trip, which is just short of five furlongs. Harry Vigors claims 5lb for Michael Appleby. The one knock is six races without a win, and at 10/3 we can live with that.
The last of them runs at eight o’clock, and BE FRANK (8:00 Southwell, 11/2) has two plain problems. He has not won in five starts, and his speed figures have been going the wrong way. We are not going to tell you he is improving, because he is not.
The reason we are on him is who he has been finishing near. The horses around him in those recent fourths, fifths and a sixth have gone on to win races, so the form is stronger than a line of 45-645 suggests. He was out only 14 days ago, so he is fit, and he knows both the seven furlong trip and the surface. Ian Williams runs him in a Class 5 with thirteen going to post, and Jack Callan rides from stall 11. The losing run is why he is 11/2 in a race he should be competitive in, and that price is too big for a horse whose recent rivals keep winning.