How much does 87 days off matter to a horse that has only run twice? That is the only real question about CAPTAINCY (3:17 Pontefract, 15/8), and we are answering it in his favour.
Look at what has happened while he has been away. He won at Windsor on 29 June, and the horse he beat by half a length that day has since won a class 2. Today Captaincy runs in a class 4 over six furlongs with five others. Another horse from his two runs has also won since, so this was not one lucky result from a weak race. He has already run over today’s trip, and Callum Rodriguez rides for Clive Cox. The layoff is what keeps him at 15/8. With that Windsor form behind him, he should be shorter.
The rest of Pontefract
Three thirds in his last six and no win usually means a horse the handicapper has caught up with. L’EAGLE AID (4:27 Pontefract, 11/2) is not that horse. His times are climbing sharply from a low starting point, and that is what a horse on the way up looks like. At Chester on 2 August he was beaten a length and a half by a horse that has won a class 4 since, and one more rival from his recent races has also scored. He has had 26 days off, he has run over the trip and on the ground, and stall 6 suits over a mile and a half here. Connor Beasley rides for Charlie Johnston in an eight-runner class 5, and we would rather be with the horse getting better than the ones that have stood still.
BE PATIENT (3:52 Pontefract, 7/2) has drawn well in stall 3 for ten furlongs round here. He won three starts back and was third last time, and the horses he has finished close to lately have gone on to win races. His recent times are below where they need to be, and that is the part we have to take on trust at 7/2. Oisin Orr rides for Edward Bethell.
Newmarket
At Thirsk on 5 September, BLACK VELVET BOY (2:25 Newmarket, 9/2) was beaten three parts of a length. The horse that beat him has since won a class 3 off a mark 6lb higher than the one it ran off that day. So the only horse to get past him has shown it was well ahead of the handicapper, and Black Velvet Boy was right there with it. That came after wins two and three runs back. This is harder, an eleven-runner class 3 over five furlongs, but stall 6 is a good draw for it and 19 days between runs is about right for a sprinter in form. Oisin Murphy rides for John and Sean Quinn, and Thirsk says he is better than his last result.
The 4:45 is a twelve-runner class 5 over a mile. Richard Hannon’s SIGNCASTLE CITY (4:45 Newmarket, 7/1) comes into it having been placed or close up again and again, most recently third. At Windsor on 13 August he went down by three parts of a length to a horse that has won a class 4 since, and another from his recent races has also won. His times are going the right way and are already good enough for this. Joe Leavy rides from stall 3, which is where you want to be.
Perth
Some horses run better at Perth, and THE LAST CLOUD (2:14 Perth, 9/4) is one of them. He goes better here than he does in general, and Brian Hughes rides the track better than his overall record too. Only six run in this class 3 over two and a half miles. He has had 40 days off, he has run on good ground before, and his recent times are above his own usual level, which you would not guess from five runs without a win. There is a pulled-up run in his recent form, and that is why he is 9/4. Round a track he likes, with a jockey who rides it well, we will take it.
Nearly three miles at Perth tests whether a horse really stays, and DIVILABOTHER (3:59 Perth, 13/2) has already run over this trip and on this ground. He has won four of his last six, including last time. The concern is plain enough. His recent times are below par, and we cannot point to anything that says they are about to improve. He is also asked to carry a lot in a class 2 of eleven runners. Even so, a horse that keeps winning is worth backing at 13/2.
Yesterday our five headline picks produced three placed and no winner.
Southwell after dark
Billy Loughnane has two rides for us at Southwell, three hours apart, and the first is the harder one to back.
THAPA VC (5:30 Southwell, 11/2) was sixth and eighth on his last two starts and his times have gone the wrong way. That is the case against him. Before those two runs he won twice in a row at this level, and at Doncaster on 15 August he finished a head in front of a horse that has since won a class 4. He knows the seven furlongs and he knows the surface. The price is based on his last two runs and ignores the two wins before them.
Half an hour later BOLD SHOUT (6:00 Southwell, 4/1) runs over the same trip. He won three starts back and runs today in a lower grade than that win. Stall 7 is a good draw here, and he is back after 13 days, which gives him a quick chance to put last time’s eighth behind him. P. J. McDonald rides for Clive Cox.
That is all there is on him, and at 4/1 it is enough.
Fourteen run in the 8:00 over a mile and three furlongs, which can get messy, and GUESSTIMATE (8:00 Southwell, 13/2) is drawn well in stall 4. She won three starts back and was second the time after, then only seventh last time, and 13/2 is mostly a reaction to that seventh. She also drops below the grade of that win. At Lingfield on 11 August she finished a head in front of a horse that has won a class 4 since, and another from her recent races has scored as well. Ross Coakley rides for William Haggas.
Loughnane’s second ride is the one we are happier with. MEET ME IN MERAKI (8:30 Southwell, 2/1) won last time and was second the run before, and he has run over this trip and on this surface. Stall 3 suits in a field of eight. The horse that beat him a head at Chepstow on 31 August has won since, but only a class 6, so it does not add much. We are with him because he is the one in form in a small field, and 2/1 reflects that.
Captaincy answers his 87-day question at 3:17. Meet Me In Meraki closes the day at 8:30 with no question like that to answer.