Three horses that have run against DOMINATION (4:07 Redcar, 11/2) lately have gone on to win races since, and he is still 11/2.
The one that matters most came out of Doncaster on 9 July. Domination finished a length and a half in front of that horse. It has since won a Class 4 and is now rated 6lb higher than on the day they met. Class 4 is the grade he runs in this afternoon. The other two winners came out of his recent races too, and what they add is that this is not one lucky result. He won three starts back and has been third on each of his two runs since, so his recent form gives us nothing to worry about. Stall 5 is a good place to be over this ten furlongs, and his record suits good to firm ground, which is what Redcar has today.
The clock is the catch. His recent times sit below his own level and nothing says they are turning, so this is not a horse getting quicker. The races he has been running in keep producing winners, though, and at 11/2 in a twelve-runner handicap we will go with that.
EMPEROR’S SON (4:41 Redcar, 10/3) is the opposite case. His form figures look ugly since he won four starts back, with three below-par runs since. His times, though, have been rising steeply from a poor starting point. He is not fast yet. He is heading the right way, in a six-runner sprint over the minimum trip, and he is back out just six days after his last run. Joanna Mason rides.
Listowel
Henry de Bromhead does noticeably better at Listowel than he does in general, and that is the best thing DOWNMEXICOWAY (4:15 Listowel, 4/1) has going for him.
The rest needs some forgiving. He was fourth and fifth on his last two starts, he has been off for 56 days, and seventeen go to post in a Class 1 run over just short of three miles. Go back further, though, and he was third three starts ago and won the race before that. On the clock he has been running quicker than he normally does, and that does not fit with the finishing positions. At 4/1 the price has taken more than enough off for those last two runs. Darragh O’Keeffe rides.
Thirty five minutes earlier comes the Mullins runner. CAHER ROES DEN (3:40 Listowel, 11/4) won last time out, has been off 52 days since, and has already run over this three miles on good ground. Paul Townend rides.
The run that makes the case is from Downpatrick on 14 July. He was beaten a length and three quarters that day by a horse that has since won a Class 2. That is a proper yardstick to be measured against, and it is why we are happy to take a short price. There is a pulled-up run three starts back, but he has been fourth and then a winner since.
Goodwood
Only five go to post for the 3:15, a Class 1 over a mile and a quarter on good ground. BOILING POINT (3:15 Goodwood, 3/1) turns up having finished sixth last time, and that is the obvious question.
It is a fair question, but it leaves out most of his story. Two starts back he was second. His recent times are coming out ahead of what he usually produces, which is not what you see from a horse on the way down. He has gone well over course and distance before, so the track and trip hold no mysteries. K. R. Burke trains and Sam James rides. In a field this small, a horse who handles Goodwood and is running above his own level against the clock does not need much luck. The sixth is why he is 3/1. It is not a reason to leave him out.
Kempton in the evening
APHRODITE SPIRIT (8:00 Kempton, 9/2) has finished in the first three on each of her last five starts, winning one of them.
Consistency alone would not get her in. The direction she is moving does. Her times started from nothing special and have risen sharply, so she is improving rather than proven, and that is the stage of a handicapper’s career worth catching. At Kempton on 26 August she finished nine tenths of a length in front of a horse that has since won a Class 4, the same grade as tonight. She is drawn in stall 7, which suits over this trip. Second last time and still 9/2.
Half an hour later, over the same mile and three furlongs, SANSANETTI (8:30 Kempton, 13/2) is a far less tidy proposition. Her form figures go up and down, and that is the worry. Against that she won two starts back, her recent runs are quicker than her norm, and stall 5 is a good draw in a fourteen-runner Class 6. At 13/2 that is enough.
Yesterday’s headline picks brought places but no winner.
The two Kempton races go off thirty minutes apart over the same trip, and we have Aphrodite Spirit drawn in 7 for the first and Sansanetti in 5 for the second.