Two hundred and five days. That is how long it has been since CUBAN FIESTA (6:12 Wolverhampton, 7/2) was last on a racecourse, and it is the only reason he is 7/2 tonight rather than something a good deal shorter. What he did that day, at Lingfield on 28 February, was win. The horse he finished half a length in front of in that race has since gone and won off a mark 6lb higher than the one it raced off against him, and it has been put up again since. Another runner out of his recent races has won as well. So the February form has been doing work all summer while he has been off the track, and his times were climbing from a modest base before he disappeared, which is a horse going the right way rather than a horse who is already fast. Nobody can tell you the fitness is there until they jump. In a class 6 sprint, at that price, we will find out.
The rest of Wolverhampton
BASED (6:42 Wolverhampton, 10/3) runs again three days after his last start. Yards do not do that with a horse they have doubts about, and it removes the one query you would otherwise be chewing over. He has gone well over course and distance, so the bend and the run to the line hold no surprises, and stall two is where you want to be over seven furlongs here. The one thing on the other side is that his only recent win came six starts back and the figures since have been ordinary. He is still the best equipped of these.
The refusals are the first thing anybody will see next to JUST JUMP (8:12 Wolverhampton, 4/1). Eight, refusal, one, five, three, refusal is not a line you talk yourself past lightly. But at Lingfield on 4 August he was a length and a half behind a horse that has since won and is now rated 5lb higher than the day they met, and one more out of his recent races has won since too. He is drawn in three, which is the right side over six furlongs on this track. The form figures say leave him alone and the level of the races says something different, and that gap is exactly where a 4/1 shot comes from.
GIFTS DIFFERING (4:00 Wolverhampton, 7/1) is thinner. What we have is Southwell on 6 August, where she finished three quarters of a length ahead of a rival who has won since and is now rated 7lf higher than that day, plus stall two over the mile and a furlong. Winless in six and second last time out is the rest of it. At 7/1, that is enough to be involved without pretending there is more.
Beaten three quarters of a length at Newmarket in August by one that has won since, JACK LANGLEY (4:35 Wolverhampton, 7/4) gets two miles and knows this surface. Five runners, short price, straightforward.
Hamilton on soft
UNCHARTEDTERRITORY (2:47 Hamilton, 5/1) is the one we would talk about longest. At Ayr on 8 August he was beaten two lengths by a horse that has since won a class 4, and that is the bedrock of the whole case. On top of it, his times have sharpened noticeably from a modest starting point, and a horse doing that off an official mark of 74 is one the handicapper has not yet caught. Read his last six the other way round and you get four, seven, three, one, six, two, so there is a win three starts back and a second last time in there, and the blanks in between are why he is 5/1 rather than half that. Daniel Tudhope has a better record round Hamilton than his overall figures suggest, which is worth something in a twelve runner handicap where positioning matters. Stall three over a mile and a half here is the right side of the track. Soft ground, a mile and a half, and a horse improving faster than his form line admits.
Tudhope also has the leg up on CITY CAPTAIN (4:30 Hamilton, 9/4) in the class 4 sprint. He comes here off a win, which is the simplest argument in racing, and he has gone well over course and distance before. The Hamilton run on 21 August has worked out too, the one he finished a length in front of that day having taken a class 4 since. His recent figures are nothing to shout about and we will leave that where it is. A winner last time with the course proven is enough at 9/4.
HARB (3:55 Hamilton, 9/2) drops in grade here, and that matters more than anything else on his page. He won twice in his last six, back to back, then finished unplaced last time, and that one poor run is most of the reason he is 9/2. The York defeat on 6 September reads better every week, because the horse that beat him a length and three quarters there has since won a class 4. He has gone well over course and distance, and Hamilton is one of Tristan Davidson’s stronger tracks. His times are not going forward, so the case is class relief and a sprinter who was winning races not long ago, in a six runner field where he has the trip and the ground covered.
Ireland
Willie McCreery has three of ours today and Billy Lee rides all three.
NAOI (4:57 Fairyhouse, 13/2) lines up in a twenty one runner seven furlong handicap and comes out of stall two. In a field that size, over that trip at Fairyhouse, low is a proper advantage. She has the trip and the ground behind her, she won two starts back, and she has been well beaten either side of that win, so nobody is being sold a model of consistency. She carries a lot of weight for a filly rated 68 and that is the honest query. Against it you have a draw that does half the work before the stalls open, and 13/2 in a race where most of the field will be racing into trouble by halfway.
Her stablemate BUNDLE OF INTEREST (6:57 Fairyhouse, 7/1) has the opposite draw and the same reason for being here. Stall 18 of 18 over six furlongs sounds like a sentence and at Fairyhouse it is a positive. She was third last time after a run of races where she found nothing, and her times are below par with nothing to suggest a turn. What you are backing is a mare who showed something last time, on the right flank of a big field, at a price that accepts the rest.
OCEAN SURGE (6:27 Fairyhouse, 5/1) has eight, six, five in her last three and has not won in any of them. The reason we are involved is that horses she has been finishing close to keep going out and winning races, so the level she has been competing at is better than the bare figures make it look. Nine runners is a manageable field for a mare rated 80 with the trip and the ground already proven. Twenty days since her last run, back over six, 5/1.
AMPLITUDE (2:55 Listowel, 13/2) has not won in six starts, and that is what most people will get to before they move on. Underneath it he was third two starts back and third the start before that, and at Roscommon on 30 June he was three quarters of a length off one that has since won. Another out of his recent races has won as well. He runs off 79 in an eighteen runner handicap over a mile and a furlong, a trip and a surface he handles, and his figures lately have been below par with no sign yet of a lift. The 83 day break is the other query and it is a fair one. What you get in exchange is a price that would be half of it if the form string read differently, in a race where the top of the market will be taken by horses with no better claim.
Ffos Las
RESEMBLANCE (2:04 Ffos Las, 13/8) has been off 107 days and has never won a race. That is two things to answer at 13/8 in a five runner class 5. She shaped well when second two starts back and she has run over six furlongs before, so the trip is no experiment. At Chepstow on 6 June the horse that beat her a head has won since, though only in class 6, so treat that for what it is. Michael Bell and Oisin Murphy on soft ground in a small field is a combination that does not need a fast pace or a clear run to work. The layoff is the whole of the risk.
Yesterday’s headline picks, four of them, brought no winners and two placed.
First look tonight goes to the 6:12. Seven months away, and the horse he beat in February has been winning off higher marks ever since.