A head is nothing. At York on 19 August, OLD IS GOLD (3:45 Newmarket, 11/10) was beaten a head by a horse that has since gone and won a Class 3. Something else out of his recent starts has won since too, so the races he has been running in were not weak ones. He won last time out, he is back inside a fortnight off the back of it, and he has the trip and the ground he wants. Odds-on for a nine-runner Class 4 looks skinny until you sit with what he has actually been beaten by. The one caveat worth stating is that the clock has not caught up with the form, his recent times are ordinary rather than quick, so this is a bet on what he has run into rather than what the watch says. We are happy enough with that.
He is not the only one on this card whose beaten runs read better than the result.
Newmarket
PERCY SHELLEY (4:20 Newmarket, 11/4) is the opposite kind of case. Forget collateral form, the appeal here is the clock. He has been getting quicker run on run and the times he is now posting stand up against Class 3 company rather than needing an allowance made for the grade. Six runners over two miles two furlongs, 13 days since his last start, and he has had the ground before. Five starts without a win is the honest part of it, and his yard does not have a record here to lean on, so all of the case rests on the times. They are good enough.
ZATSGOOD (5:30 Newmarket, 3/1) has been placed in four of his last five and finished half a length in front of one at Newbury on 26 August that has since won a Class 4. Fourteen runners, a middle-to-wide berth, and a trainer who has done better elsewhere than he has at this track. The form is working out and the price is fair.
Chester
Chester at two thirty five is a seven furlong handicap on soft ground and SOMERS ISLES (2:35 Chester, 2/1) has stall two. That matters more here than almost anywhere. Third then second in her only two starts, so she has yet to get her head in front, and the market has her favourite on the back of a pair of placed efforts rather than a win, which is usually where the value drains away. Not this time. At Newmarket on 17 July she came home a length and a half in front of one that has since won a Class 3, and Chester is one of Balding’s stronger tracks compared with how he goes generally. She has the trip on her record. A win is overdue and the conditions are set up for it.
Later on the same card, HAVANA RUM (3:46 Chester, 10/3) is a thinner proposition and we will not dress it up. Drawn three for a soft ground sprint, which is where you want to be at this circuit, and the York race he contested on 6 September has already produced a winner at this level, with him three quarters of a length in front of that one on the day. Beyond that there is not a great deal. His times are nothing special and the yard has been quiet over the last fortnight. It is the draw and the price.
Ayr
Two days. That is all the rest SAILTHISSHIPALONE (4:50 Ayr, 4/1) has had, and we take it as a positive rather than a worry, because the reason he is back so quickly is that he won on Thursday and the yard wants to use the form while it is there. The bigger point is what he ran into in July. At Pontefract on the 17th he was beaten a length, and the horse that did it has since won a Class 3 and is now rated 7lb higher than it was that day. Read his last six as 439331 and you get a horse who has been hitting the frame all summer and has now got the win. Seven furlongs and fifty yards on soft, both of which he has handled, and stall three is where you want to be for this trip round Ayr. His raw times are below what we would like and we are not going to pretend there is a trend hiding in them. Everything else about the profile is pointing the same way.
Newbury
Eighteen runners in a Class 3 over seven furlongs at Newbury, good ground, and CASTLE ROCK (3:55 Newbury, 9/4) is a short enough price for a field that size. The reason is the shape of his last four, two wins, a second, and a mark of 91 that says he has earned all of it. Good ground suits what he has done. The times have dipped slightly and that is worth knowing in an eighteen runner handicap where he needs everything to drop right from stall ten. Appleby and Buick at that price tells you what the market thinks of the chance. We agree with it, without pretending there is a hidden angle.
Newcastle
AMERICAN BAY (6:30 Newcastle, 5/1) is winless in six and that is exactly why he is 5/1. Look closer at those six. At Beverley on 13 August he was beaten a head by one that has won since, and another horse out of his recent races has also won, so the level he has been running at is decent even if the finishing positions do not flatter him. His times are moving in the right direction and they were already respectable. Newcastle is one of Midgley’s better tracks measured against his overall strike, he has had 15 days since his last run, and stall five suits a five furlong dash here. Nothing about this is a standout on the figures. It is a horse in the right place at a price that has written off the last six runs without reading them.
OPERATION GIMCRACK (7:00 Newcastle, 5/1) is the last of ours and the lightest of them. Third last time, second the run before, so he arrives in decent order after a month off, and the surface has always suited him on his record. He was beaten a head at Newcastle on 20 August by one that has won since, though that was a Class 6 and we are not going to lean on it. Rated 59, drawn nine of ten, and the top of this race is a bit beyond him on the numbers. A profile and price play, nothing more.
Yesterday five headline picks returned two winners, Service Minimum at 4/1 and Powder Monkey at 15/8, with Belle Amie placed at 6/4.
The one to watch the market on is Old Is Gold. If 11/10 drifts out toward 6/4 before the off, take it, because nothing about what he was beaten by at York justifies him easing.