Three wins on the spin usually means the handicapper has caught up and the price has gone with it. SATYRESS (2:21 Thirsk, 13/8) is the exception. The times she has been recording are climbing sharply from a low starting point, and a horse whose clock is still moving that quickly is not the finished article a hat-trick makes her look. She has won three of her last five, she has been round this trip on this ground before, and stall 5 is where you want to be over a mile and a half at Thirsk. The one real question is the 138lb she has to lug round. If she is still going the right way at the rate her times say she is, the weight is the cost of being good rather than the reason she gets beaten. Tom Kiely-Marshall rides for Harriet Bethell. Four in a row is the bet, and 13/8 in a twelve runner Class 6 is not a price we are going to argue with.
The rest of Thirsk
PARODA DIVA (3:51 Thirsk, 4/1) drops below the grade she last won in. Her last two runs, a sixth and an eighth, are why she is 4/1 and not shorter, and they are the honest concern. Set against them is a clock that has been going the other way from her finishing positions, her times improving hard from an ordinary base, and when the placings and the times disagree this sharply we side with the times. The win four starts back and the second three starts back show what she does when it all comes together. She has run over six furlongs on good ground before and Jason Hart rides from stall 10.
FRACTIONAL (4:51 Thirsk, 5/2) has placed in four of her last five without winning, which is normally where we get off. The reason we stay on is what has happened to the horses around her. More than one rival she finished close to in recent starts has gone on to win, and that puts a higher value on those thirds than the placings alone would give them. Stall 7 is a good draw for this trip, she has run over the distance on good ground before, and William Haggas’s yard is winning at 28 per cent over the past fortnight. Cieren Fallon rides. She still has to prove she can get her head in front, and at 5/2 that is a fair thing to hold against her, but the form she has been running to has been winning form for other people. It is her turn to have it pay.
Windsor
The best single line of form on the card belongs to KING OF BERKSHIRE (4:12 Windsor, 7/4). He was second at Ascot on 8 August, and the horse half a length behind him that day has since won a Class 3. Today he runs in a Class 4. Another horse from his recent races has also won since, so the form is working out in more than one direction. He has a win in his last six, he has been over this trip on this ground, and stall 5 is the right side of the draw here. Thirty-seven days off and 132lb on his back are the questions, and we would not call him a standout on paper. He is here because the Ascot form is now worth more than it was on the day he ran it, and 7/4 has not moved to reflect that. Callum Hutchinson rides for Andrew Balding.
ELECTRIC BASS (4:42 Windsor, 10/3) is a price play and we will call it one. Two seconds and a third in his last five, no win, and he comes here 12 days after his last run with 135lb from stall 1 over a trip and ground he has handled before. His times at this track have been strong, and his best figure of all is a recent one. Jack Mitchell rides Windsor better than he rides in general, which counts for something in a Class 6 with 11 runners.
CAMELEY DAYS (5:12 Windsor, 7/2) was eighth last time and has not won in six, and the bare figures do her less than justice. She is on the list for one run. At Sandown on 28 August she finished a length in front of a horse that has won since, and in a five furlong Class 6 that is the sort of thing that separates a field of twelve. She has been over this trip on this ground before and Marco Ghiani rides from stall 9. Do not expect fireworks. The price is fair for what she has shown and nothing more.
Kempton in the evening
HOT SILK (8:00 Kempton, 11/4) has gone six starts without winning, and the placings undersell her. A second two starts back, a third the run before that, and at this track on 10 August she beat a horse by a head that has since won. She comes here 19 days after her last run, she has been over this trip before, and Oisin Murphy rides for James Fanshawe from stall 8 off 132lb. The clock is the concern. Her recent times have been slipping rather than rising, so this is about the form around her holding up, not about her getting any quicker. In a Class 5 over a mile and a quarter and a bit, with nine runners, it holds up well enough.
Thirty-two days off is the thing with BEELZEBUB (8:30 Kempton, 9/2). He won three starts back, followed it with a second, and then ran sixth, and the break gives him the chance to put that sixth behind him. Myla Coppins claims 5lb off his 131lb from stall 10 and he has run over six furlongs on this surface before. A horse he finished half a length in front of at Ffos Las in June has won since, though that was a Class 6 win and we do not lean on it. He is the weaker of the two Kempton picks and the price says so.
Yesterday’s headline picks produced a winner in Footstepinthewoods at 5/1, with Adrestia at 15/2 and Rock Of England at 11/2 both placed.
Thirsk goes first and Satyress sets the tone for the day. If the clock is right about her, 13/8 will look big by half past two.