Jason Hart has the best book of rides at Musselburgh tonight. He is on STAR PEOPLE (5:20 Musselburgh, 10/3), SUNRISEONTHEBOYNE (5:50 Musselburgh, 7/2) and WRESTLING REVENUE (7:20 Musselburgh, 13/2) for us, the last two for Ben Haslam, and the first of the three is the one we like most.
Musselburgh
Star People was beaten a nose at Newcastle on 20 August, and the horse that got there first has since won in class 4. That is the run to hold onto. His last six read 052322, second three times and third once, and he still has not won, which is the market’s reason for 10/3 in a nine-runner class 5 sprint. Look past the placings to the company he has been keeping and the picture changes. Class 4 is a grade above today’s race, and Star People was a nose off a horse that has since won at that level. Stall 7 suits over five furlongs here and he has run over the trip and the ground before. If a placed horse anywhere today is going to turn one of those seconds into a win, it is this one.
Sunriseontheboyne won at Newcastle on 2 September and is back ten days later. That is the turnaround a yard uses when a horse has come out of a race well. The runner he beat half a length that day has since won, if only in class 6, so the form has at least held. Stall 3 is where you want to be over this mile and a bit at Musselburgh. His record either side of the win is patchy, and 7/2 says as much.
Wrestling Revenue has not run for 93 days and has not won in five, and 13/2 is the price of both facts together. We go back to Ripon on 28 May instead. He was beaten three quarters of a length there by a horse that has since won, and another runner from his recent races has gone on to win too, so the races he has been in have produced winners even while he was finishing down the field. Stall 2 helps over five furlongs at this track. The absence is the one thing we cannot answer from the desk, and it is why he is the biggest price of the four.
MASABAN (6:20 Musselburgh, 7/2) gets seven furlongs on good ground. Good ground has suited him across his career and he has run over this trip before. He was third last time and second the run before that, and the Redcar race on 8 August is the one that matters. The horse that beat him by under two lengths there has since won in class 4, and another from his recent races has won as well, so that form has been confirmed twice over. He comes here after 35 days off, fresh, and stall 4 is a good spot for this trip. Sam James rides for Edward Bethell.
Lingfield
WALKING ON CLOUDS (6:17 Lingfield, 11/2) has the best single piece of form on the whole card. At Wolverhampton on 7 July he finished three quarters of a length in front of a horse that has since won off a mark 6lb higher than it carried that day. A rival going up 6lb and winning anyway is the clearest endorsement a race can get. He has won twice in his last four starts, has gone well over this course and distance, and comes here 25 days after a seventh that needs forgetting. Beyond Wolverhampton the case is thinner and the price is doing some of the work. In a ten-runner class 6, 11/2 is enough.
PACE ATTACK (2:13 Lingfield, 5/2) is short for a horse whose last five read 76041, so start there. Sir Mark Prescott’s horse won last time and comes back 12 days later. At Wolverhampton on 17 August he was beaten half a length by a horse that has since won, and his own win came after that, so the recent form is better than a string ending in one solitary win suggests. He is up to 131lb, a career high, over a mile and a half against nine others. That is the concern. Luke Morris rides.
Lingfield is one of James Fanshawe’s stronger tracks, well ahead of how his horses do in general, and that is where we start with ORANGE EMPEROR (4:35 Lingfield, 5/1). He was second last time out, ten days ago, and is straight back. Placed twice in six without winning, with a fifth and a sixth in between, so this is not a horse arriving on a streak. The one that beat him a length at Southwell on 16 August has won since, though only in class 6. Stall 3 is a favourable draw over seven furlongs here and Ashley Lewis takes 3lb off.
STRONG VOICE (5:15 Lingfield, 3/1) is getting quicker. His times have stepped up sharply from a low starting point, and that combination, a modest base and a steep climb from it, is what a horse the handicapper has not yet caught looks like. He was second last time and second four starts back. At Kempton on 19 August the horse that beat him a length and a quarter has since won. Stall 7 is a good draw over this seven furlongs. He has not won in five, and that is the concern and the reason for 3/1 rather than shorter.
Only six go in the 5:47 and KAORI (5:47 Lingfield, 11/2) has been third in three of her last five. She has not won yet. At Lingfield on 22 July the horse that beat her a length and three quarters has since won, which is the one line that lifts her above the bare placings. Pat Cosgrave rides for George Boughey and the price is right for a horse still looking for a first win.
Bath
ARUNDEL (1:20 Bath, 7/4) drops in class and has finished in the first three in three of his last five, with two seconds and a third in there. The horses he finished close to in those runs have gone on to win, so the placings are not the placings of a horse just filling the frame. Seven runners, stall 5, which is a favourable draw at this trip, and he comes back after 13 days for Ed Dunlop with Mr Henry Callan aboard. He has run over this distance and this ground. He has not won in that recent spell, and 7/4 does not leave much room, but the race sets up for him.
MAY ENCOUNTER (4:20 Bath, 3/1) has one horse in the field faster than her on the clock and no more. She drops into stall 2 with 128lb, has run over five furlongs and a bit on good ground before, and has been kept busy without winning in her last five. Horses she finished close to in those runs have since won. That is the whole case.
Yesterday’s headline picks drew a blank for winners. Distant Shore placed at 2/1.
Chester
EAGLE BAY (5:10 Chester, 7/1) has an official mark of 85 and it is still going up, which is what two wins in three starts does to a horse. He won two starts back and three starts back, then finished seventh last time, and it is that seventh that has pushed him out to 7/1. He runs today below the grade he last won in. The other side of it is honest. On the clock he does not rank near the top of this nine-runner field, and his recent speed figures are below par. Harriet Bethell’s horse is drawn in stall 9 and Sean D Bowen rides. This is a horse whose mark and recent wins say more than his last run, and the price has been set by the last run.
Leopardstown
Ryan Moore rides ISAAC NEWTON (4:25 Leopardstown, 7/2) for A P O’Brien in a class 1 over a mile. He won last time out, has run over this trip and this ground before, and returns after 37 days off with 131lb from stall 10 in a field of ten. His times already stand up at this level, which is the thing that separates him from horses who win a lesser race and then get found out when the grade goes up. His last six read 451631, so he has been mixed, but the most recent of those is the win and it is the one that counts. He goes off five minutes after May Encounter at Bath, so keep both screens on.