A head. That is what SPRING BLOOM (3:15 Goodwood, 11/4) was beaten by at Newmarket on 7 August, and the horse that beat him has since gone and won a class 2 off a mark 5lb higher than he carried that day. Form lines do not come much better. The rival has taken a 5lb rise and won a class 2 in spite of it, which means the race they shared was worth a good deal more than it looked at the time. Spring Bloom himself has finished third and then fourth since winning two on the bounce, so the market is looking at a horse who has gone off the boil. We are looking at a horse whose recent form has been against better than the placings suggest, in a class 4 over five furlongs today on ground he has handled before. Stall 7 in a field of seven, David Probert on board, and a mark of 74 that looks fair against what the Newmarket form has become.
DECALOGUE (4:25 Goodwood, 7/2) ran five days ago. Jamie Osborne does not need telling that, and a yard does not turn a horse round that quickly without a reason. He comes here off a second and a third in his last two, and the form he was part of at Newmarket on 6 August has hardened since. A rival he finished two lengths in front of that day has won and is now 10lb higher in the weights than when they met. That does not make him a certainty over a mile and a quarter in an 11-runner class 5, and the quick turnaround is the one thing that would put us off. It is not enough to. Saffie Osborne rides from stall 11.
Catterick
Stall 4 over five furlongs and change at Catterick is a good place to start, and AURA OF MELANIA (1:53 Catterick, 5/4) has it. She is 5/4 having not won in six, which tells you the market has already looked past the bare form. It is right to. At Ripon on 27 July she was beaten a nose, and the horse that did it has since won a class 4. Two more from her recent races have won as well. Kevin Stott rides Catterick better than he rides most places. Second last time, third the run before, a mark of 63, and a trip and ground she knows.
Ian Williams has been going through it. Four winners from every hundred runners is the recent number, and that is the thing to weigh against GIANT (3:03 Catterick, 5/1) rather than anything the horse has done. Because what the horse has done is win last time, and the clock says he did it while still on the way up. His figures have climbed sharply from a low enough base that a mark of 63 has not caught up with him yet. He is not quick in absolute terms. He is going the right way, which in a class 6 sprint is the thing that matters. Today is a drop in grade from the race he won, and a horse he finished a nose in front of at Brighton on 23 August has won since. Clifford Lee from stall 7.
IDEAL GUEST (3:36 Catterick, 10/3) has the least behind him of anything we are on today, so we will say the least. He won two starts back and was fifth after 48 days off last time. Stall 1, a 5lb claimer in Ethan Tindall, a mark of 59, and a trip and ground he has run on before. That is the case and it is a short one.
The other Harriet Bethell runner is a different matter. TAAKLAM (4:11 Catterick, 4/1) won eight days ago and comes straight back, which a yard does not do with a horse that has taken anything out of himself. Before that win he was at Ayr on 8 August, beaten two lengths by a horse that has won since, and another rival from his recent races has gone in as well. Tom Kiely-Marshall takes 5lb off from stall 11 in a field of twelve. Like Giant he started from a modest base and has been climbing steeply since, and 4/1 about a last-time-out winner with that behind him is fair.
CAPTAIN CESS (4:46 Catterick, 6/4) is the one here we can say least that is new about, and we are on him anyway. Second last time, a winner the run before, a third before that, and 35 days since he ran. A horse he finished two lengths clear of at Thirsk on 16 July has won since, at this level, which is corroboration rather than a reason on its own. He has run over this trip and ground before. At 6/4 the price has most of that in it already. We are with him because the recent form is consistent and a mark of 60 still looks workable.
Leicester
Rossa Ryan rides both of ours at Leicester and the first is the harder sell. ARCTIC TSAR (2:52 Leicester, 9/2) has finished eighth, sixth and sixth in his three runs, and there is no way to make that look pretty. What there is instead is the company. Horses he finished close to in those races have won since, so the positions undersell what he ran into, and today he drops in class for Clive Cox with 27 days between runs. Stall 10 of ten over seven furlongs.
MUMAYAZ (4:02 Leicester, 7/1) is the bigger price and the more straightforward case. Half a length was the gap at Newbury on 23 July, and the horse in front has won since. He has gone well over this course and distance before, he won six starts back, and a mark of 68 over six furlongs on ground he has run on is no obstacle. He has not won since that day six starts ago, and that is the honest reason he is 7/1 in a class 5 rather than shorter. Stall 9 of twelve.
For the record, yesterday’s three headline picks produced no winner, and Ascending Star was placed at 2/1.
Bangor-on-Dee
ROADLESSTRAVELLED (5:12 Bangor-on-Dee, 9/4) closes our day and is the pick with the biggest question hanging over it. Three wins from his last five. Then two pull-ups. Then 80 days off. A horse that was winning three out of five and then failed to complete twice on the spin is either one that has gone wrong or one that had two bad days, and Jonjo and A.J. O’Neill have given him the summer to sort out which. He has run over this trip and this ground before. He is off a mark of 132 in a class 3 with four runners, so the race will be simple to read. Nobody should be backing him on the promise of more to come. We are backing the horse who won three of five to still be in there somewhere.
Four runners at twelve minutes past five. It will not take long to find out.