Three wins from his last four starts, the most recent two of them back to back, and tonight HANDLETHEKETTLE (7:06 Worcester, 9/4) drops in class from the grade he last won in. That is not the direction a horse with that record usually gets sent. He is rated 122, he has gone well over this course and distance before, and he has met two and a half miles on good ground. At Worcester on 7 July he had half a length on a rival that has since gone and won a class 3, so the level he was competing at before he went away holds up on inspection. Gavin Sheehan rides for Jamie Snowden in a field of eight.
The catch is 424 days. He has not seen a racecourse since last summer, and at 9/4 you are taking it on trust that the horse who comes back is the one who left. Everything else about the race says he should be shorter.
Ascot at 6/1
Six to one is a generous price for a class 2 handicapper whose best recent run has aged the right way. HARD ENDEAVOR (4:48 Ascot, 6/1) was beaten a length and a half at Sandown on 13 June, and the horse that did it has since won a class 3. He was second again last time out. The numbers he has been posting lately are better than his own standard, and stall 3 is a help over a mile round here. Rossa Ryan takes the ride for Jane Chapple-Hyam off a mark of 100, and the horse has already run over this trip and on this ground.
Sixty two days since that second is the query, and it is a fair one on a horse whose recent record includes an unplaced effort as well as the good ones. Thirteen runners in a class 2 is no place to need the run. That is most of the reason he is 6/1 and not 7/2.
Three at Kempton
A length. That is what MISSION COMMAND (7:54 Kempton, 7/2) had over the horse behind him at Wolverhampton on 30 July, and that one has since won a class 4. Another rival out of his recent races has won since as well, so the company he has been keeping has gone on and done something. He won last time out himself. Six furlongs, seven runners, stall one, Daniel Muscutt for Jennie Candlish. The reason to be careful is that two of his last six starts ended in seventh, and a horse who runs his race four times in six is a horse you have to accept will occasionally not turn up.
Half an hour earlier, a high draw is less of a burden than the number suggests. PHILANTHROPIST (7:24 Kempton, 4/1) breaks from stall 14 over seven furlongs and that is the right side of this one. He has been running to a level above his own par lately, he was second last time out, and horses he has been finishing alongside in those races have gone on to win. James Fanshawe puts Billy Loughnane up. He runs off 84, he knows the trip, he knows the surface, and thirteen runners in a class 4 will not bother him.
DIVISION DAY (8:24 Kempton, 7/1) won last time out and gets dropped in class for the trouble, which is backwards enough on its own to make you look twice. He has come from a low base and gone the right way with each run rather than arriving here quick. And at York on 11 July, the horse that beat him a length has won since. Robert Havlin for Lydia Richards over two miles.
Bangor and Kilbeggan
The handicapper has not got to the bottom of ASHDOWN FOREST (5:10 Bangor-on-Dee, 3/1) yet. He started from a modest level and has climbed with each run, the sort of move that tends to get noticed a race or two too late. He was third last time out after winning the start before. He has the two and a half miles and he has the ground. At Uttoxeter on 24 July he finished a length and a quarter in front of one that has won since, and Dan Skelton has been running at 43 percent over the past fortnight, with Harry Skelton in the saddle. The hard part is the weight. He carries 161 lb and sits seventh of twelve on ratings, so there is plenty for him to find on paper against a field of eleven.
Kilbeggan is one of Henry De Bromhead’s stronger tracks, better than the record he posts everywhere else, and he sends COCOFRED (4:42 Kilbeggan, 11/4) there off a win. Back at Tramore on 30 May the one that beat him a length and a quarter has won since. Darragh O’Keeffe rides, the two miles on good to yielding is ground and trip he has already handled, and he is rated 117.
Sixty days since that win, and 161 lb to carry at this level, are the two things you are backing him to get past.
Haydock in the mud
Heavy ground over a mile and six at Haydock, and GENTLE WARRIOR (1:30 Haydock, 7/2) has been round on both before. He is yet to win, and there is no point pretending that is not the weak spot in the case. What holds it up is that rivals he has finished close to in his recent races have gone on to win, so he has not been running badly, he has been running into decent horses. Stall 5 helps. Eight runners, K. R. Burke and Toby Moore, 34 days since his last outing, 140 lb and a mark of 72.
He opens the day at 7/2 and the race asks him to finally convert.
Yesterday our five headline picks returned two winners, Diplomata at 13/2 and Satyress at 7/2, with Toolatetonegotiate, Nightsinwhitesatin and Boyfriend all placed.
Worcester at seven o’clock is the one to watch on the exchanges. If Handlethekettle is backed through the evening, the 424 days were the only thing holding him at 9/4 in the first place.