Bath, 5 June. WEDGEWOOD (3:30 Bath, 7/1) got touched off by a nose. Three months on, the horse that did it has won a race off a mark six pounds higher than the day they met, and another rival from her recent starts has won since as well. So the closest finish she has been involved in all summer turns out to have been against a horse the handicapper has since had to reassess upwards. She is 7/1. Tony Carroll sends runners everywhere and this is one of his stronger tracks, she has gone well over this course and distance, and Tom Marquand rides. The 72 days since her last outing is the one real question, and her recent times have flattened rather than sharpened, so this is a bet about what happened in June rather than a bet on a horse in the middle of a hot streak.
The rest of Bath
Two and a half hours later at the same track, QUEBELLA (5:02 Bath, 10/3) offers a bigger version of that same argument. She was beaten a length and three quarters at Goodwood in May, and the one who did it has since won a Listed race. Another rival out of her recent runs has won too. Three thirds in her last five, Jamie Spencer up for Owen Burrows, six of them going to post. Eighty two days off is a fair query and we would rather she had a recent outing behind her, but the May race has aged into something a class 4 field here cannot match on merit.
THE FEMININE URGE (2:30 Bath, 7/2) opens the card and the case is narrower. Stall seven over Bath’s awkward five furlong and 160 yard trip is the place to be, and she has had both the ground and the distance before. Her times are not moving forward, so this is a draw and a mark, nothing grander.
BELLE AMIE (5:35 Bath, 2/1) is the one at the meeting whose numbers are climbing. From a low base, admittedly, but a horse finding a bit more each start off a modest mark is the horse that outruns the handicapper, and she has a win three back and a third last time behind her. She has gone well over this course and distance. David Simcock, Callum Shepherd, six runners. Short at 2/1 and entitled to be.
Hamilton on soft ground
IRIS DANCER (5:20 Hamilton, 7/2) was a head behind at this track on 11 August, and the one that beat her that day has gone on to win a class 4. She now runs below the grade she last won in. Her clock figures have picked up sharply from a modest base, she has gone well over this course and distance, and Tristan Davidson does noticeably better here than his record elsewhere reads. Set all of that against a form line of 613095 and the two do not agree at all. Thirteen runners is a full field for a Hamilton sprint, and stall seven is workable. Of everything on today’s list this is the one where the bare figures and what the horse has actually been running into pull hardest in opposite directions.
CLOCKER (5:50 Hamilton, 2/1) is simpler. He has gone well over this course and distance, he won last time out, and he has been placed in three of his last four. Twelve runners, Oisin Orr for Edward Bethell, and 2/1 is a fair reflection of all of it.
DIAMONT KATIE (6:50 Hamilton, 10/3) went down by a length at Goodwood in July to one that has since won a class 4. K. R. Burke’s filly was second two starts back and a speed figure of 80 puts her right there at the weights from stall ten. The unplaced run last time is the reason she is 10/3 and not half that.
VAMPIRE SLAYER (7:50 Hamilton, 11/2) has not been seen since March. A hundred and sixty six days is a long absence and it has to be respected. What sits on the other side of it is a drop below the grade he last won in, stall seven over this trip, and a run of seconds that says he holds his own at this level. He is the one on today’s list most reliant on the yard having him ready.
Kempton after dark
SHAMAN CHAMPION (8:00 Kempton, 6/1) has the deepest pool of collateral form of anything we are on. A head behind at Southwell in July to a horse that has since won at class 4. Two further rivals from his recent starts have won since. Plenty has come out of the races he has been contesting, which is exactly what you want when a horse’s own finishing positions read 2-7003. Clive Cox, Rossa Ryan, stall six over seven furlongs here is the right side, and 6/1 about the highest rated in the race is a price worth taking. He shaped well last time, 37 days ago. His recent clock work is below his best and there is no upward trend to lean on, so the case is the company he has been keeping.
JOSEPH (8:30 Kempton, 11/2) has five rivals in a class 5 over a mile and a quarter. Third last time, a winner five starts back, back after 16 days, and he finished in front of one at Wolverhampton in July that has won since. One more from those races has also won. Small field, David Egan, John Butler.
ORANGE EMPEROR (5:30 Kempton, 7/1) is the hardest sell of the fifteen and there is no point dressing it any other way. Winless in six. His figures are below par and there is nothing in the trend to offset that. What he does have is stall three over seven furlongs here, which is genuinely the right side, and a Yarmouth run in July where the horse that edged him by a head has won since. That win came in a class 6, so it proves very little on its own. At 7/1 in a seven runner race it is enough to take a chance on. It would not be enough at 3/1.
Newcastle and Navan
HAVANA PRINCE (3:15 Newcastle, 5/1) has been well beaten lately, eighth last time, unplaced in two of his last four, and he carries 139 lb here. Against that, the horse that put two lengths into him at Carlisle on 19 August has since won a class 4, another rival from those races has won, and he now drops below the grade he last won in. He has gone well over this course and distance. Twelve runners, Tom Eaves, stall nine.
LADY DELILA (5:45 Newcastle, 13/2) sits at the other end of things, a class 6 mile off a mark of 45, and she holds the single most useful line at the meeting. Beaten three quarters of a length at Wolverhampton on 2 June by one that has since won off a mark five pounds higher than it carried that afternoon. A rival going up in the weights and winning anyway is the strongest endorsement a beaten run can get. Stall seven suits over the mile here and Jason Hart rides. Fifty eight days off the track is real, and 13/2 about a mare the bare figures place near the bottom of the field is the price of that doubt.
SUNRISEONTHEBOYNE (4:15 Newcastle, 11/2) has 806078 to his name and nowhere to hide it. Rivals he has been finishing close to have been winning since, and that is the whole of the case. Thirty two days between runs, stall one, Andrew Mullen.
Then Ireland, and a seventeen runner sprint handicap at Navan. BAD BOY RIZZ (4:38 Navan, 7/2) finished a length and a half in front of one at Naas on 22 July that has won since. He has been running well without winning, he has stall sixteen, which is the right end of a big field over the minimum trip, and Colin Keane rides for Ross O’Sullivan. His times have eased back rather than sharpened, so the argument rests on where he is drawn and the company he has been in.
Yesterday, of our five headline picks, one won and three placed. Yermanthere took the winner’s share at 6/1.
If one bet defines today it is Iris Dancer at 7/2. A head behind a subsequent class 4 winner at Hamilton last month, dropping below her winning grade tonight, on ground and at a track she has handled. Most of the rest of this list is an argument about price. That one is an argument about form.