Cliff Danger has won a class 4 since the fifth of July. That matters this afternoon because PARANJAPE (4:55 Lingfield, 13/2) finished a length and three quarters in front of him at Southwell that day, and nothing about the price suggests the market has gone back and looked. Five runners, a class 6, and a horse who has already put daylight between himself and one that has since won two grades higher. Take the 13/2.
That is the sharpest bit of collateral form on the day, but it is not the only one.
Ripon
YERMANTHERE (2:10 Ripon, 6/1) was beaten half a length here on 18 July by a horse that went on to win a class 4 and is now rated 7lb higher than he was that day. Another rival from his recent races has won since too, so this is not one result flattering him, it is a run of races that have stood up. He has gone well over course and distance before, he has form on soft, and Tim Easterby has him back at the track where the best of that work was done. The sixth last time out is the reason he is 6/1 rather than half of it.
STAR PEOPLE (3:10 Ripon, 7/4) drops in grade off a pair of seconds, and the one who beat him three quarters of a length at Nottingham on 3 August has won since. Five furlongs on soft in a field of six. He is short and there is no argument with it.
Brighton
Four here, and the first is the one we like most.
LONDON IS BLUE (4:06 Brighton, 9/4) has spent recent months finishing close to horses that have gone on to win. That is worth saying plainly. His own form line reads 0-4202 and a punter glancing at it sees a horse without a win, but the races themselves have produced winners since, which changes what those placed efforts were actually worth. Add that he knows this trip and this ground, he goes forward when they let him, and he has had 17 days since his last run. Marco Ghiani rides Brighton better than his overall record suggests. The one honest caveat is that his times have been drifting the wrong way, so we are backing the company he has been keeping rather than the clock.
KING DAVID (6:15 Brighton, 9/4) is a different case altogether. His times have taken a sharp jump from a low base, which is exactly how a horse gets in front of a mark of 53 before anybody notices. Second eight days ago, back out quickly, and stall seven is the right side of the draw over seven furlongs here.
TATTIE BOGLE (6:45 Brighton, 9/4) has been running quicker than he normally runs. That is the whole case and it is enough at the price in a six-runner class 5. He was second two starts back and won earlier in the year. The eighth last time out is the one thing you have to take a view on, and we think the rest of his season is the better guide.
Which brings us to MR COOL (7:15 Brighton, 9/4), who arrives off a win and has won twice in his last six. The interesting part is that his times are climbing hard off a modest starting point at the same time as the results are coming, and horses in that phase tend to be ahead of their mark for a few weeks rather than a few days. Today’s ground is ground his record likes. Ten days since Ayr is a sharp enough turnaround to catch him in the same condition. The 131 lb he carries is the thing that could stop it and we are not going to pretend the weight is nothing.
Lingfield
DIVOT (2:20 Lingfield, 15/8) has two wins and a third from six, and one of the horses he finished a length and a half in front of at Yarmouth in July has won since. It is a class 6 win, so do not build the whole bet on it. What we like better is that he knows a mile and two furlongs round here, stall four is a help, and eighteen days is the right gap. His recent times sit below where they should, and there is no upward trend to lean on, so this is a form bet rather than a clock bet.
LA PEREGRINA (4:20 Lingfield, 6/4) won last time and was second in the two before that. Rivals out of those races have won since, so a mile and five in a five-runner class 5 is a fair place to be. Short enough.
PHOENIX MOON (5:25 Lingfield, 3/1) drops back into a lower grade than the one she last won in, which is the single most useful thing on her page. She has gone well over course and distance, she has stall five, and six furlongs on the Lingfield surface is a set of conditions she has already handled. Two eighths in a row is why she is 3/1. The class drop is why she should not be.
Wolverhampton
VARIETY ACT (6:20 Wolverhampton, 2/1) has not run since February. That is 195 days and it is the one thing you take on trust here. What buys the trust is Sir Mark Prescott and the run that ended that season, two lengths behind a horse at Kempton that has since won a class 4. Prescott does not bring one back after that long without a reason.
NUTCRACKER (4:42 Wolverhampton, 11/4) has been placed in five of his last six with a win among them, and stall five over seven furlongs here is where you want to be. Back in July at Lingfield he held off a rival by a head who has since won, and that one is now rated 6lb higher than the day they met. It was only a class 6, so it is corroboration rather than a case. Fifty days off is a question, though a yard like Tony Carroll’s rarely runs one cold for the sake of it.
SANSANETTI (8:30 Wolverhampton, 2/1) was beaten a length at Windsor on 20 July by a horse that has won since, and she has gone one better herself, winning last time out. Her recent times sit above her own par, she comes back quickly, and the going is what her record has always wanted. Stuart Williams does not have a strong record at this particular track, which is the only mark against, and a horse in this shape over a mile and a half tends to outrun the yard’s course figures.
MACANUDO (7:30 Wolverhampton, 7/1) is running at one of Ian Williams’ stronger tracks and his recent figures are right up with his career best. Five furlongs, stall two, 7/1. Winless in recent starts, so the price is fair rather than wrong, but that combination of a career-best level and a mark of 53 is worth a look.
Gowran
LOHOOBB (3:30 Gowran Park, 13/2) won last time out and goes up in the weights for it, carrying 142 lb over seven furlongs on yielding. Twelve runners, and he has drawn the widest stall of the lot, which sounds like a problem and is not. Over this trip at Gowran that berth is a help. Everything else about him is straightforward. He is in form, he has the trip, and 13/2 is generous for a horse who came here off a win.
Yesterday four of our headline picks ran. Rock Of England won at 11/4 and King Roly was placed at the same price.
The one we will be watching hardest is the 4:55 at Lingfield. Five runners, a modest class 6, and a horse whose best recent line has been quietly upgraded by a class 4 result that happened somewhere else.