Most horses that step into a class 1 come back with the same number written smaller. That is the honest reason we are with BOILING POINT (3:10 Goodwood, 9/2) over a mile on good to firm this afternoon. His times have not shrunk at this level. They sit above his own par right now, which is the whole point of him, because the field he is meeting is where plenty of nice horses discover they were flattered a grade lower. Then there is Sandown on 3 July, where he was beaten half a length and the horse that did it has since gone and won a Listed race. So the recent evidence is a mark of 112, a horse running to his best, and a defeat by half a length in form that has since produced a Listed winner. In a nine-runner class 1 from stall one, 9/2 is a price.
Yesterday, three of our four headline picks won. Velvet Goldmine at 13/2, Alice De Clare at 6/1, Kelly Burn at 9/2.
Goodwood
FORTY YEARS ON (2:00 Goodwood, 9/4) has won four of her last five. The seven furlongs is proven and stall two is on the right side of a fourteen-runner class 2 sprint, which matters when the pace splits. Her strongest single line is a head defeat at Southwell, and the rival that got past her that day has since won a class 2 of its own. Seventy-nine days off the track is the query and it is a real one, because this is not the sort of race in which to be finding your legs late. The mark of 96 is the reason we are prepared to take the risk anyway.
The Curragh
A head. That is what separated TRADEWINDS (2:28 Curragh, 4/1) from the winner at this course on 19 July, and everything since has made that afternoon look better. The rival went out and won off a mark 5lb higher than it carried the day they met, and the handicapper has taken it up again on top of that. Form figures of 532330 will not excite anyone. Thirds, a second, no win in the sequence. But a horse holding that sort of level off 85, from stall one, over seven furlongs and ground he has already handled, should be shorter than 4/1 on the strength of the July running.
NAOI (4:50 Curragh, 5/1) won nine days ago and is straight back for more. Twenty-one runners over six furlongs turns a race into a lottery, so stall four is doing serious work. The one she held by half a length at Killarney in July has won since.
Windsor gives us three, and three different arguments
UNDER THE TWILIGHT (5:00 Windsor, 11/4) is the one they all have to beat. She won last time out, won three starts back, and she has gone well over this course and distance before, which counts for something on a track where a six-furlong dash rewards knowing the ground under your feet. The Goodwood run on 29 July backs it up, because the rival she held by a head there has won since. Stall six is where you want to be.
MADMAN (5:30 Windsor, 7/2) is not a fast horse. He is a horse getting faster, and off a modest base that is a different and better thing, because it means the handicapper is chasing him rather than sitting on him. Back-to-back wins, form over course and distance, stall seven.
STONEY WOOD (6:00 Windsor, 9/4) drops into class 6 and that is the case. He has not won in four and the recent figures are plain. Stall six over this trip is worth having. There is a Southwell line from July where he finished half a length in front of one that has won since, though only in class 6, so we will not lean on it.
Beverley in the soft
PRINCE OF CALYPSO (2:20 Beverley, 4/1) is back inside a fortnight off a winning run, which tells you plenty about how Edward Bethell has found him. Twelve days is a quick turnaround for a mile and a half and yards do not do it with horses they are unsure about. The substance sits in the Southwell run on 27 July, where he came home a length and three quarters clear of one that has won since. Soft ground and this trip are both in the book already. His recent speed figures are on the plain side and we are not going to dress that into a trend it is not. Off 77, with a bare 3-3731 that undersells him, 4/1 is fair.
BORJINA (4:45 Beverley, 9/2) has the most instructive beaten run of anything we are on today. Doncaster, 3 July, beaten a length and three quarters. The horse that did it went out and won off a mark 7lb higher than it carried that afternoon, and has since been raised again, to 13lb above where it stood the day they met. Form does not get endorsed harder than that. She returns from 31 days off, she has run over the trip, and a bare set of figures reading 4-1725 is what keeps her at 9/2 in a class 5.
SUPREME CLARETS (4:10 Beverley, 4/1) has been running quicker each time from a starting point that was nothing much, and that combination is where well handicapped horses come from. He won last time out. Stall five is the right side here over seven furlongs.
Sandown
NOBLE PRINCE (4:35 Sandown, 7/2) has run twice in his life and been fourth and second. There is not much book to go on, so the question becomes what those two runs were worth, and the answer is more than the bare positions. The one that beat him half a length at Yarmouth on 28 July has since won a class 4, and another rival from his recent racing has won as well. Add stall five on a track where that is the right half of the draw and a Charlie Appleby horse with William Buick aboard. We would stop short of calling him a standout. It is a profile and a price at 7/2.
BETSEN (5:10 Sandown, 6/1) went to Epsom on 6 June and was beaten three quarters of a length by one that has since won a class 2 and is now rated 8lb higher than it was that day. Another from his recent races has won since too, so that whole cluster has stood up. He won two starts back, he is rated 86, and today’s ground is what his record wants. Eighty-four days off the track is the reason he is 6/1 rather than half that, and in a nine-runner class 4 sprint we are content to take the money and accept the risk.
Chepstow
PJ’S CORNER (5:15 Chepstow, 11/4) finished a head in front of one at Bath on 1 July that has since gone and won a class 4. Two more out of his recent races have won since, so the level he has been racing at is holding up rather than falling apart. He won last time out and this is only six runners over five furlongs.
DASH OF CLASS (7:15 Chepstow, 5/1) is winless in six and the figures will not tell you otherwise. What she has is Chepstow, a track this yard handles far better than it handles racing at large, with a jockey in the same bracket here, and stall six over a mile and a half. Take it for what it is, a price play.
The one to watch is the 3:10. Half a length behind a subsequent Listed winner in July, running to his own best, and 9/2 against eight.