Beaten two lengths at Newcastle in July. That is the line on SOVEREIGN VIEW (5:20 Sandown, 3/1), and the one who did it that day is now rated 6lb higher than he was, having gone on to win a class 4 since. Sovereign View has been in the first four in four of his last five. His figures have climbed sharply off a modest base, which is the shape a horse takes when the handicapper has not caught up with him yet. Stall six is where you want to be over this trip at Sandown. He is the most complete case we have today and 3/1 still looks generous for a horse with that many boxes ticked.
Beaten by horses who went on and won
Three of today’s picks were beaten by rivals who have since scored, and that thread runs right through the afternoon and into the evening.
CRACKERGEE (4:55 Ffos Las, 7/4) was two lengths adrift at Lingfield on 13 July. The one who beat him has since gone and won a class 4 off a mark 9lb higher than he was rated the day they met, which is about as strong an endorsement as a beaten run can carry. Another rival from his recent races has won since too, so the whole block of form has stood up rather than one horse flattering it. He has gone well over course and distance before and the trip is right on his record. Hughie Morrison does better here than his overall record suggests, and David Probert is another who rides this track above his general level. The fifth last time after 46 days off is the honest question and 7/4 is not a price that leaves you much room. But the form behind him is real and the rest of the case is sound.
VELVET GOLDMINE (6:20 Goodwood, 13/2) went down by half a length at Newbury on 1 June, and the one who beat her that day has since won a class 4. Two more from her recent races have won since as well, so three horses out of her last few runs have gone on to score, and a mare rated 69 who keeps finishing that close to that standard of horse is not badly treated. Her recent figures are right up at her career best, which is not something you can say about many 13/2 shots. Seventy-six days off the track is the ask.
ALICE DE CLARE (5:10 Goodwood, 6/1) is 6/1 for a race she comes into off a win 15 days ago, with two wins from her last three completed starts. The one who beat her a length at Lingfield in June has won a class 4 since, and another from her recent form has scored too. Her figures have taken a sharp step forward from a low base. Good to firm is exactly what her record wants. Thirteen runners and stall ten is the traffic to negotiate, and the seventh two starts back is on the page, but a mare going this well at 6/1 is where we want to be.
Goodwood in the evening
VEIL OF CLOUDS (6:55 Goodwood, 2/1) is back out 11 days after winning, and the Crisford yard has been firing at 30% over the last fortnight. She had a length and a half over one at Wolverhampton in July who has since won a class 4. Odds-on she is not, but 2/1 for a horse in that kind of form off a mark of 69 is fair enough.
KELLY BURN (5:45 Goodwood, 9/2) is drawn in four, and over this trip at Goodwood that is a help worth having. She won last time out and knows the trip and the ground. Sixty-three days off is the query you have to take a view on. Her recent figures are ordinary and we are not going to claim otherwise, so this is a bet built on the draw, the last-day win and the price rather than on the clock.
Sandown and Ffos Las
SKY SECRET (2:25 Sandown, 6/1) has stall four over the minimum trip, and at Sandown that is the one you want. Out of the frame in his last three. There is not much more to it than that, so this is a price call.
THE STONE POWER (2:35 Ffos Las, 11/4) comes into this off a win and drops into stall two, which over seven furlongs at Ffos Las is the plum berth. Good ground is what his record has always wanted and he gets it. The clock is where the argument thins out, because his recent figures are below par and there is no upward trend to lean on. Add the pull-up in the recent form and you can see why he is not shorter than 11/4. We are taking him on the draw, the ground and the fact he is arriving in winning order, not because he is faster than these.
Wexford
COOL SUMMER (4:15 Wexford, 7/2) has been second in back-to-back starts without getting her head in front, and horses she has finished close to have gone on to win, so the level she has been running to is better than a bare 06-622 reads. She knows the trip and the ground. Against her, the figures are going the wrong way and 157lb over two miles and a bit at Wexford is a genuine weight to shoulder in a 16-runner field. She is here on the strength of the company she has been keeping.
Yesterday our five headline picks returned one winner, Massimo Blue at 5/2, with Seed Ya Later at 7/1 and Cable Beach at 3/1 both placed.
The three that stand up best today are all built the same way, beaten by horses who have since gone and proved the form. Sovereign View is the one where that evidence comes with a draw, an upward curve on the clock and a price of 3/1.