A head. That is what separated ROGUE ATTRACTION (3:30 Carlisle, 9/4) from the horse that came past her at Goodwood on 28 July, and that one has since gone and won a class 2. Two more from her recent races have won since as well, so the company she has been keeping keeps producing winners. Last time she finished seventh, and that is the run everyone will be looking at. It is the wrong run to look at. She had already shown she can win at this level two starts back, she has had a spin over this trip on this ground, and Daniel Tudhope has a better strike rate at Carlisle than he does at large. Stall nine of eight runners is a wide berth, and Edward Bethell is not at his best round here. Neither of those changes what the Goodwood form has turned into since.
Carlisle
Half an hour before that, TEN CLARETS (3:00 Carlisle, 9/4) lines up in a five-runner class 4 as the highest rated of them, drawn on the fence, with a second and a third in his last two starts. Carlisle is one of K R Burke’s stronger tracks, better than his overall record would have you expect. Ten Clarets has raced over this trip on this ground. The only thing missing from the profile is a win, and at some point a horse this consistent stops finding one better.
HANSTEEN (4:30 Carlisle, 7/4) is where the afternoon asks for a bit of faith. He won three starts back and has been placed on both runs since, over a trip and a surface he knows, which is a horse in good order. Set against that, the Quinn yard has no Carlisle record to shout about, and his recent times have been ordinary. Take him on the finishing positions and the class of race rather than the clock.
Jim Goldie sends ANNANDALE (5:00 Carlisle, 7/2) into the last of our Carlisle four with good ground underfoot, which is what his record wants. Go back to Ayr on 6 July and the horse he held off by a head has since won off a mark 7lb higher than it carried that day, which is about as clean an endorsement as a summer handicap gives you. He won four starts back and has picked up two thirds since. Forty-five days off is a genuine query and we are not going to talk it away.
Wales and the Irish opener
SEED YA LATER (2:37 Ffos Las, 7/1) went down by just over a length at Lingfield on 1 August to one that has since won a class 4. Today he drops below the grade he last won in, which is the move that matters. He is back out only ten days after his last start, his recent figures sit at the top end of anything he has ever run, and 7/1 for the one rated hardest to beat in a seven-runner class 5 is generous. The clock has not been sparkling lately and we hold nothing to say it is about to turn. The class drop does not need it to.
COOL AZUL (2:14 Navan, 9/4) is a quick turnaround job. Second nine days ago, a winner the start before that, and now drawn in stall two, which over five furlongs and 180 yards at Navan is the side you want to be on. Fourteen runners and a horse in this sort of order with the right berth is a straightforward proposition.
The all-weather
MICK’S SPIRIT (3:52 Lingfield, 6/1) has finished sixth in three of his last six and nobody is going to fancy him off the card. The clock says something else. His figures have been climbing and they are already at a respectable level, he has gone well over this course and distance before, and the horse that beat him here on 6 July by a length and three quarters has since won a class 4. Two more from his recent races have won since. This is a price play and we will call it that. At 6/1 in a six-runner sprint on a surface he handles, with the times going the way they are going, there is enough.
CABLE BEACH (6:00 Southwell, 3/1) is a different kind of proposition and the more attractive one. His times have sharpened up hard off a modest base, which is what a horse looks like just before the handicapper works out what has happened. He is not fast yet. He is getting faster, and that is the bit worth having. This trip at Southwell has suited him in the past and stall two is a help over seven furlongs there. Sixty-three days since his last run is on the debit side.
GIVE ME THE NIGHT (6:30 Southwell, 4/1) has a form line that reads a lot better than 4-8-0-5-0 suggests, because horses he has finished close to lately have gone on to win. He knows the trip and he knows the surface. That is the case, and it is a thinner one than we have on some of today’s.
Last of them, MASSIMO BLUE (8:30 Southwell, 5/2) won 11 days ago and comes here fresh off the back of it. He has gone well over course and distance, and stall four is the right end of the draw for six furlongs at Southwell. The caveat is the clock. His times have been drifting the wrong way, and 5/2 asks him to beat horses running quicker. The course form and a winner’s confidence are why we are still on.
Yesterday’s headline four returned two winners, Madjid at 6/1 and Lion Of Mali at 5/2.
Carlisle at 3:30 is the race to watch. If the Goodwood form is worth what it looks worth, the seventh last time will read as a blip by six o’clock.