Ray Dawson takes three rides for us at Kempton tonight, two of them for Roger Varian and one for James Tate. Not one of the three has run since spring or early summer. Sixty-three days, seventy-four days, one hundred and nine days. Fitness is the honest query against all three, and it is close to the only query, because the form they are coming back on has been winning races while they have been off.
Start with the Tate one. BINT KILFRUSH (7:51 Kempton, 10/3) held a rival by half a length at Ascot on 9 May, and that one has since gone and won a class 3 off a mark 5lb higher than it carried the day they met. Going up in the weights and winning anyway is the hardest thing a beaten rival can do for you, and it is the strongest endorsement a piece of form ever gets. It is not the only one out of her recent races either. Another has won since, so this is one race working out rather than one fluke flattering her. She won three starts back, she is drawn in four which is where you want to be over a mile and a half here, and the 109 days is the reason she is 10/3 rather than half that. Her recent figures have been ordinary and we are not going to dress them up as anything else, but the horses she has been racing against have gone out and proved what the form was worth.
Six furlongs and stall two is a combination that does no harm at Kempton, and WEZZEER (8:21 Kempton, 11/4) has the further advantage of having done it here before over course and distance. He won three starts back and was second two starts ago, so he arrives as the one they all have to get past on recent form. Sandown on 13 June is the race that firms it up, a length and a quarter between him and one that has won a class 4 since. Seventy-four days is the caveat and it is a real one at this trip, where a horse who needs the run gets found out inside the first two furlongs.
SHUSHU (7:21 Kempton, 13/2) is the one most people will leave out, because a fifth last time takes the gloss off a win and a second before it. Look instead at Yarmouth on 10 June, where she came home two lengths clear of one that has won a class 4 since. She knows seven furlongs. At 13/2 the 63 days is priced twice over.
Later on the same card, MADJID (8:51 Kempton, 6/1) is going the right way and the climb has come from a modest starting point, which is the exact combination that gets a horse home before the assessor catches up with him. He has a win inside his last six starts with patchy form either side of it, and 39 days off is a small thing rather than a large one. One he beat by a length and a quarter at Newbury on 2 July has won since. Lewis Edmunds goes better round Kempton than his overall record would lead you to expect, and that is worth a line here because there is not a great deal else to add.
Newbury
Newbury on 17 July is the piece of evidence ACCADEMIA (6:30 Newbury, 7/2) carries into this, a length and a quarter between her and one that has since won a class 4. She has two wins in her last five, she has gone well over course and distance, and good to firm is what her record wants. Her figures have taken a sharp step up from a low base, which is the shape of a horse still ahead of her mark. There is a serious argument against her and it is not the horse. Ed Walker’s yard is 2 from 42 over the past fortnight and a yard in that state can leave one flat on the day. We are on the horse rather than the stable, and 7/2 in a twelve-runner handicap is the price for taking that risk.
Six runners at seven o’clock, so LION OF MALI (7:00 Newbury, 5/2) has five to beat and a low draw from which to do it. He was second last time out and won three starts back. At Newmarket on 10 July he got a head in front of one that has since won a class 4 and is now rated 5lb higher than it was that afternoon. His speed figures are nothing special and we hold nothing to say they are about to change, but in a field this size that matters less than it would in fifteen. He has the trip and the ground on his record.
Fifteen of them go at ten past four and 7/1 is generous for a horse this consistent. REGAL TIGER (4:10 Newbury, 7/1) has been second on each of his last two, which most people will read as a horse who finds one too good. Windsor on 20 July says otherwise. He was beaten half a length there by one that has since won a class 4 off a mark 5lb higher, so the horse in front of him that day was better than the result made it look and has proved it under a bigger weight. Another out of his recent races has won since as well. He has seven furlongs on good to firm in the book. Hugo Palmer running at 5% over the last fortnight is the mark against, and it is enough to explain the price without changing the case.
EAGLES ATTIRE (7:30 Newbury, 7/1) looks unbackable on the bare form. Two sixths, an unplaced run, nothing at all since 4 May. What that ignores is that on the May afternoon at Windsor he got a head in front of a horse that has won a class 4 since. He has raced on this ground before. The 114 days is a lot to forgive and we are forgiving it because seven runners and 7/1 gives us room to.
Wolverhampton
BOILERMAKER (3:30 Wolverhampton, Evens) is short and the reason is straightforward. Doncaster on 18 July gave us the line, a head in front of one that has since won a class 4 and is now rated 5lb higher than the day they met. He won last time out, he was placed in three of the four before that, and today he drops in class from the grade he last won in. Harry Charlton does less well at Wolverhampton than he does elsewhere and Boilermaker’s figures have been drifting the wrong way, so evens is not a gift, and against seven rivals in a race easier than the one he last won it is about right.
Yesterday Needin’ U won at 9/2, with Strong Voice (7/2) and Launch Time (5/2) both placed.
The Ascot form Bint Kilfrush brings back with her is the best single piece of evidence anywhere on today’s card. The 109 days is all that stands between her and a much shorter price.