Go back to 6 June at Musselburgh and NEEDIN’ U (2:45 Musselburgh, 9/2) was beaten a length and a quarter. The horse that did it has since gone and won a class 4. Two more rivals from her recent races have won since as well, so this is not one isolated piece of form flattering itself. Those races keep producing winners, and she has been in amongst them without getting her head in front.
She goes back to the same track over the same trip on the same ground. Musselburgh is one of the stronger courses for the Easterbys relative to how they do everywhere else, and Billy Garritty also gets more out of the place than his general record suggests. Stall six is where you want to be over five furlongs here.
The honest read is that fifth and fourth in her last two says she keeps finding one or two too good. The figures do not scream at us. What we have is a horse whose recent company has won races, at 9/2 in an eight runner sprint, and that is enough.
Bellewstown, and two who are drawn right
LAUNCH TIME (4:55 Bellewstown, 5/2) is in stall five of sixteen, and over this trip at this track that is the part of the equation you cannot argue with. Sixteen runners over just short of a mile on yielding ground turns into a scramble, and where you jump from decides who gets a clean passage at the business end. He won two starts back, he has handled the trip and the ground before, and Colin Keane knows the place.
Seventh last time takes a bit of gloss off it and the clock has him drifting slightly the wrong way rather than the right one. At 5/2 in a field this size, the draw and the recent winning form still carry it.
Then there is GIVEHERTILXMAS (5:30 Bellewstown, 9/2) in the last, and she is the more interesting of the two. Third last time out after a spell of nothing much, and the times behind that run have picked up sharply from a low starting point. That is not a horse who is quick yet. It is a horse going the right way while the handicapper is still working off what she was doing earlier in the summer. Off a mark of 60, over a trip she has already raced, there is room in there.
Stall fifteen looks a long way out on the wing until you know it is a spot that works at this track over this trip. The 56 days off is the one thing to weigh. She comes back from that break straight into a fifteen runner handicap, so she needs to be ready first time.
Lingfield
STRONG VOICE (4:00 Lingfield (AW), 7/2) drops in class here and that matters more than the two sixths on the end of his form. He is six days off his last start, which tells you the yard is happy enough with him to run again quickly rather than freshen him up. Stall five over seven furlongs on the Lingfield surface is a kind spot, and he has both the trip and the surface behind him already.
The one thing worth adding is Sandown on 23 July. He finished a nose in front of a rival who has since won a race. It is only a class 6 win, so do not build the bet on it, but it is a small tick rather than nothing.
Musselburgh again
JOJO RABBIT (4:45 Musselburgh, 10/3) is in a six runner sprint off a mark of 62 and he looks better than that number. Six without a win and an unplaced run last time is the case against, and the clock has gone the wrong way lately rather than the right one, so there is no hiding place if you were hoping the last run was a blip. What we like is the horse rather than the recent evidence, and 10/3 in a small field over a trip he has already handled is a fair price for that.
Yesterday’s headline picks came to nothing. Two ran, neither won, neither placed.
The Bellewstown card is where the day gets decided for us. Two races back to back over the same seven furlongs and change on yielding ground, two horses drawn on opposite wings and both of them in the right place for it, and the same rider on both. If the draw behaves the way it usually does there, we will know inside forty minutes.