Five meetings and seventeen picks, and the shape of the day is obvious the moment you look at where they land. Seven of them come from one card at Kempton. That is not us forcing the issue. It is just where the races made sense.
Kempton is where the weight of the staking sits too. It Would Be You at 12/1 in the 6:00 is the biggest single stake we have down anywhere today, and Forever Penywern in the 8:30 carries the same. Between them, Warrior Mode and Final Night are both short enough to suggest the market agrees with us, and Solanna rounds off the card at 9:00. It is a long night under lights, so pace yourself with it. There is no obligation to have a bet in all seven.
The one we keep coming back to is Philanthropist in the 7:00. He held Northern Express by half a length at Newmarket back in June, and that horse has since gone and won. The one who beat him that day, Aalto, has won since too. So the form has stood up from both directions, which is the sort of thing that does not always show in the price. At 4/1 he looks the soundest bet on the card.
Wales and Ireland
Ffos Las gives us two, and Noble Grace in the 6:10 is the pick of them. She has gone well over course and distance before, her record on this ground reads well, and she won last time out. There is very little to argue with there. River Edge earlier in the 4:07 completes the pair.
Gowran Park is where the bigger prices live. Obscenity in the 4:22 and Cleopatra’s Needle in the 5:52 are both in that range where one landing pays for the rest of the day, and Pimlico Piranha at 25/1 in the 5:22 is a genuine outsider we have taken a small view on. Treat it accordingly. Beverley is similar, with Beyond The Bar at 25/1 in the 3:45 and Dr Rio at 10/1, and only Hanney Girl in the 4:45 sitting anywhere near the front of a market.
Salisbury opens the day for us at 3:00 with Golden Brown, and Fox Avatar in the 5:00 is one of the shorter ones on the whole card.
Yesterday gave us Hostility at 9/2, with Talismans Time and Thunderous Love both placing behind. A solid enough day.
Twelve of today’s seventeen are bigger than 4/1, so this is a card where patience matters more than volume. If Philanthropist and Noble Grace do their bit, the rest is upside.