Fourteen picks across five meetings, and the shape of the day splits neatly down the middle. Seven of them are short enough to be doing the steady work, seven are prices we think the market has got wrong. Goodwood is where the second group lives.
Beverley opens us up and it is the meeting we lean on hardest. Head Girl and Norcross Brow both go in at two points and the reasoning is straightforward enough on both. Sunny Orange kicks the card off at 1:35. The one we would flag for a closer look, though, comes later. Speeding Bullet at 4:30 has been beaten into seventh twice recently and those runs read worse than they were. Before that he was placed twice off a similar sort of mark. Midgley has given him 55 days, the sprint trip and the track are things he knows, and stall seven is a fair spot to be. Each way is the sensible way in at that price.
Goodwood is the puzzle. Wave Rider, Poet Master and Wheels Of Fire are all each way and all at prices that tell you the market is not with us. That is fine. We would rather take three swings at a card like this than force a short one that does not stand up. Annastarzy at 5:20 is the one carrying real weight in the staking, two points at 4.5, and she is the anchor for the meeting.
Yarmouth gives us the other two we want to talk about. Nuptown Girl at 4:20 drops back down in grade from the level she won at two runs ago, which is normally the moment to be interested. The ground is good to firm and that suits her, the trip is right, and Billy Loughnane is on. She tops our reckoning of the field. Way To Dubai in the 5:25 is the each way angle. A run of fourths hides the fact he clocked his quickest time of the season only a few weeks back. Stall six over seven furlongs is the draw you want. The yard has been quiet, so that is the caveat, but the price covers it.
Over in Wales, Ariane Sky at 6:00 was staying on late into fourth last time and there is more to come. James Owen has 14 winners from 38 runners at the moment, she has done the trip, and 59 days off looks deliberate rather than accidental. Just Adair follows at 8:00. Eddie G is our single Galway runner, carrying a penalty rather than a reassessed mark after winning last time, which is exactly when a progressive sprinter is worth being on. Stall three in a field of seventeen is a gift.
Yesterday brought Riddikulus home at 5.0 with three more placed behind, so the card was working. Today asks a different question. Whether the Goodwood prices are wrong the way we think they are.