Monday gives us four meetings and a card that splits neatly in two. Afternoon work at Ayr and Lingfield, then evening sessions at Ripon and Wolverhampton. The horse we like most runs late, but the prices that make you sit up are on the west coast of Scotland.
Ayr is where we’re swinging. Four picks there and three of them are proper outsiders. Tap Dancer in the 3.00 is the one we keep coming back to. She’s slipped to a mark that looks very winnable, and her recent runs have been quicker than the bare finishing positions suggest. Paul Mulrennan and Jim Goldie are the pairing to follow at this track, and the trip on good ground suits her down to the ground. Later on, Saxon Gem in the 5.00 gets the draw you want over Ayr’s six furlongs, and her last defeat at Musselburgh came over a trip that stretched her. Goldie has won two of the last five runnings of that race, which tells you he targets it.
Lingfield’s afternoon card has a thread running through it too. Premier Cru in the 2.15 has been going faster each time while her placings have stood still, and a first time tongue tie might be the thing that sorts it out. James Fanshawe and Daniel Muscutt do especially well together at this track. Nogo’s Dream in the 4.15 is another whose recent record undersells him. He’s been stopped by traffic rather than a lack of ability, with three placings from his last six, and first time cheekpieces go on. His second at Windsor was the quickest he has ever gone.
The evening belongs to Ripon, where Long Shot in the 8.52 is our most confident call of the day. Tim Easterby and David Allan are a formidable team at this track, he’s proven over the trip and ground, his mark keeps easing, and the clock says he’s actually quickening up. Wolverhampton rounds things off with four more, headed by South Shore in the 6.30.
Sunday gave us something to build on. Who Wants Me won at 3/1, and both Wadacre Maestro at 12/1 and New York Minute made the frame. Three from five hitting the payout window is the kind of day we’ll take every time.
Fifteen picks in all today, and if the Ayr outsiders run to their recent times rather than their recent positions, Monday could be a loud one.